Predictions

[Chris Littlefield <chris@mjr.com>]

Theresa?

20-25 wins - Conference too strong, team too weak, too full of as yet
undeveloped potential.

They will go 10-30 and it will be ugly, then become competitive but not
quite enough to get over the hump.


I hate to be Mr. Doom and Gloom on this, but honestly I can't see them
being much better record-wise than last year.  The talent-base was
decimated.  They did not get either of the players they wanted.  They
drafted potential, not talent.  They made questionable (at least so far)
personnel moves even for this year, much less the future.  And they really
did not address their most crying need; quality beef in the paint.

There are a number of X-factors which could prove me wrong:

1) Pervis - I've been very happy with him so far.  If he could give 25
productive minutes/game for 75 games, it would make a world of difference.

2) Barros - Playing the point much better so far than in the past, though
his defense is still atrocious.

3) The players' learning curve - They're coming along, but will they learn
enough in time?

4) Knight - He has been a pleasant surprise so far.  No franchise player,
but could fill a bigger role than I originally thought.

5) Clearing the deadwood in the backcourt.  Have people forgotten that over
the years, the backcourt logjam has been one of the most frequently
discussed problems?

Point Guards:
Barros
Brown
Billups
Edney

2-guards:
Mercer
Minor
Bowen

That is just not an acceptable situation.  A 7-deep backcourt is a bad
thing when everyone's getting time. There is no chance for continuity to
develop.  A small backcourt is an equally bad thing.  All three of the
2-guards mentioned can move over to small forward, alleviating some
pressure, but then you go back to the runt-guard situation with at best a
Brown/Billups combo, and at worst Brown/Barros.  Edney/Barros is not even
an option.  Please.

Pitino has said that the first four games of the preseason will consist of
experimentation with different lineups, and that the last four games he
will be attempting to settle into a rotation.  I hope that in that time a
trade can be done to clear a little of the deadwood.  But of the people
we'd love to kiss goodbye (Minor, Brown, even though he's captain, maybe
Barros) how does that get done?  I hope Rick finds out.

6) Rookies - I hope they get the minutes to do some developing.  See above.
Our most effective lineup might be Barros/Billups/Mercer/Walker/Knight.
They need the time to get their feet under them, particularly Billups.
Throw him to the wolves and he'll get up to speed pretty quickly.



	Well, this was much longer than anticipated.  Sorry to ramble.  In
finishing, though, I'd like to say how much better I think this team would
be if it had Eric Williams signed to a 6-year extension instead of Chris
Mills and Ty Edney.  The need for another inside scorer to help Antoine
would be gone.  One of the backcourt runts would be gone.  At this point, I
think Denver will have a better record than Boston, even without McDyess.

	Ricky P., please prove me wrong.


Chris