RE: (Fwd) Draft Lottery - Odds of #1 pick

[Charles Jowett <jowett_charles@waters.com>]

     The following are the chances out of 1000 for teams in the 1997 NBA
Draft Lottery:

               Team                                    Chances out of 1000

               Team 1                250
               Team 2                200
               Team 3                157
               Team 4                120
               Team 5                  89
               Team 6                  64
               Team 7                  44
               Team 8                  29
               Team 9                  18
               Team 10                 11
               Team 11                   7
               Team 12                   6
               Team 13                   5
               TOTAL               1000
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
with the current standings:
Vancouver  - 1
Boston - 2
Dallas - 7
Toronto - 8

and recalling that neither Vancouver or Toronto can get the first pick
the odds of the Celtics getting the first pick are:

    ( 200 + 44 )
- --------------------------- x 100 = 33.8%
( 1000 - 250 - 29 )

ie.  The odds are 2-1 AGAINST the Celtics getting the #1 pick.  Foyle
at #7 with either van Horn, Mercer or Battie at 2, 3 or 4 is the most 
likely result.

My favorite, impossible, scenario : 
final standings:
Dallas - 1
Boston - 2
Vancouver  - 3
Toronto - 4

odds:
( 250 + 200 )
- --------------------------- x 100 = 62.2%
( 1000 - 157 - 120 )

Charles
jowett_charles@waters.com



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