Rating ML Carr

[Michael Joseph Byrnes <mbyrnes@leland.Stanford.EDU>]

I think that in order to rate ML Carr's job as GM and coach of the
Celtics, it makes more sense too look at the big picture, rather than by
simply analyzing each individual move he made.  (For example, Douglas for
Day may have been a good trade at the time, but it did absolutely nothing
for the long term good of the franchise.)

Dave Gavitt's last important act as Celtic GM was the signing of Dee Brown
to the horrid, 6 year, $19 million dollar contract which still has three
years remaining on it.  I like Dee Brown, but paying him that much for
such a long term was a mistake.  In any case, that is where the Celtics
were when ML took over.

What did ML do at this point?  He signed aging "me-first" superstar
Dominique Wilkins to a big, three year contract, and oft-injured Pervis
Ellison to a *five* year deal.  He also signed Dino Radja to a five
year deal at big money. (The Ellison contract was structured so that
Pervis had an out after two years.  The Celtics also had an out after two,
but only for health reasons.  So, if Pervis had been great, he would have
walked.  Otherwise, we were pretty much stuck with him unless he had a
career ending injury.) 

The signing of Radja was a simple case of misjudging the future value of a
player.  If Radja had continued to develop along the lines of his first
two years (and he *hustled* as a rookie; I went to a lot of games that
year, and he more than once ran opponents down from behind to disrupt fast
breaks).  Unfortunately, his work ethic seemed to desert him once he
established himself as an NBA-quality player.  So, the signing of Radja
didn't work out, but it was at least defensible.  I didn't fault ML at the
time for signing radja, so I won't now.  However, along with Brown and
Sherman Douglas, this deal gave the Celtics three "non-star" players
signed to long term deals at big money, which was the beginning of a
salary cap problem.

The Ellison signing was a foolish gamble.  It made a lot of sense to sign
Ellison because he was a player who had played very well in the past
(20/10 in his one healthy year).  However, it made absolutely *no* sense
to sign a guy who might never be the same to a 5 year, $12 million dollar
contract.  (The C's only out would have been a career ending injury, but
because Ellison could play at reduced effectiveness, they were stuck with
him.)  So, ML took a big long term risk on a deal that could have paid off
somewhat in the short term.

And, worst of all was the Dominique Wilkins signing.  Wilkins was a player
who was on the downside of a superstar career.  He was clearly no longer
the Jordanesque leaper of his youth.  He could still score 20, but that
was not enough.  Even at his best, he was not a player who excelled at
getting his teammates involved, and he was no longer a superstar capable
of winning games by himself.  This was ML's worst move of that summer,
because it made no sense in the long term, and was not going work in the
short term either.

ML Carr did a bit better in the draft, picking up Eric Montross to fill
the void left by Robert Parish. He also made good signings in Greg
Minor and David Wesley, who has been the best bargain in the league at his
cheap salary.  

But, the three big contracts had a hand in crippling the Celtics future,
and two of the three (Ellison, Wilkins) were moves that had almost no
chance of paying off.

The next year, ML received a huge bit of luck.  Dominique Wilkins'
departure for Greece during the lockout allowed the Celtics to erase the
final two years of his contract from their salary cap.  Too bad, ML
immediately flushed this windfall down the toilet by signing Dana Barros
to a 6 year, $21 million dollar contract.  Not only was this too much to
pay for a short shooter who was not a true point guard, but it made no
sense from a short term perspective, either.  The Celtics were *already*
suffering from the problem of a short backcourt (Douglas and Brown signed
to huge deals with Wesley, another short guard, the best of the bunch).
Adding a fourth short guard, who had simply had one big year on a bad
team, made no sense.  It probably also hurt whatever trade value Brown and
Douglas may have had, as signing Barros forced the Celtics to get rid of
Douglas.  Whatever faults Douglas may have had, he had two big advantages
over Barros.  He was a true point guard, and he had three fewer years
remaining on his contract.  Was this when ML re-signed Minor?  Another
foolish mistake, giving a long term deal to an essentially unproven
player.  When he made all of these huge signings, who was ML bidding
against?  I don't think there were too many teams eager to throw big dough
at the likes of Ellison, Wilkins, Minor, and Barros, but ML did it anyway.
Carr did a bit better in the draft, picking up Eric Williams (a guy who
can play and may have a future).  

As for the "Douglas for Day/Lister" trade during the season, ML deserves
absolutely no credit.  It may have been the best possible solution to a
bad situation, but the bad situation was created by ML's signing of Dana
Barros.  Think about it.  If ML had not signed Barros, and kept Douglas,
the Celtics would be much better off.  They would have Douglas, a true
veteran point guard to share the position with Billups, and Douglas'
contract would be up at the end of the 97-98 season.  Instead, they are
stuck with Dana Barros, a non point guard, through the turn of the
century.  As for day, he may have been worth a shot, but he, along with
the C's trio of short guards, ended up taking minutes away from Minor,
who, big contract or not, could never establish himself as a
productive starter.

Up until the Antoine Walker trade, I would have given ML Carr a resounding
"F".  None of his moves made any sense at all, at least as far as fitting 
into a long term plan for the future.  The signings of Wilkins and Barros
were "rotisserie" moves, made because of statistics without regard to how
the players involved would fit into a team.  Williams and Wesley were nicw
finds, and along with Rick Fox (whom ML resigned) gave the Celtics some
hope for the future.  However, ML did more to hurt that future with his
questionable moves.

The trading of Montross and the 9th pick (Samaki Walker) for the 6th pick
in 1996 (Antoine Walker) and the 6th pick in 1997 (Ron Mercer) was the
lone gem in ML's jewelry box.  In this deal, he traded a player who was
not really a part of the C's future for the chance to move up and grab
Antoine Walker, as well as the Maverick's 1997 first rounder.  (The
dissension on the Mavericks was already apparent, and it was unlikely that
the acquisition of Montross would put them over the top and lessen the
value of the pick, as the Mavs were expecting (hoping?).  Even if it had,
and the Celtics had not gotten a lottery pick, the deal still would have
made sense.

However, one brilliant move does not undo the damage Carr did to the
Celtics wuth the signings of Minor, Wilkins, Barros, Ellison, Radja etc.
If those guys had not been signed, the Celtics would be in better position
to go after better, younger, free agents, as well as retaining their own
valuable players (Fox, Wesley, Conlon, etc.)  Rick Pitino is not to blame
for the departure of these guys; Carr is.  From the moment he came aboard,
Rick Pitino has had a plan for the future, loading up on younger players
who fit his style of play.  Fox, Wesley, and Conlon would undoubtedly
still be here if only Minor, Ellison, Barros, and Radja (we still have
lots of his money counting against our cap) weren't. 

As for his coaching ability, he did not get the job done.  And, I refuse
to give any coach high marks for tanking a season.  At best, Ml was only
doing the obvious.  

So, overall, ML gets a "D", with the Montross trade keeping him from
failing outright.  

Michael Byrnes
mbyrnes@stanford.edu

P.S.  ML Carr also gets an "A" for having the decency not to hire Dave
Cowens to coach the Celtics.  Cowens is a great guy who deserved the
chance to coach a team, rather than preside over a sinking ship, as he
would have done had he gotten the job in Boston.